Ken's NFL Forecasts
Model Description
My model is a neural network-based classifier, designed to
estimate the probability of a particular NFL
team winning a matchup.
The dataset used to build the model is provided by Pro Football
Reference.
Week 2 Odds
Pick Distribution: 6 Favorites, 4 Underdogs
| Model Favorite |
Model Odds |
Book Odds
|
Edge
|
Model Underdog |
Model Odds |
Book Odds
|
Edge
|
Buffalo Bills
|
-900 |
-375
|
11%
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
+900 |
+295
|
-15%
|
| Kansas City
Chiefs |
-426 |
-180
|
17%
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
+426 |
+150
|
-21%
|
| Los Angeles Chargers |
-170 |
-142
|
4%
|
Tennessee Titans |
+170 |
+120
|
-8%
|
| Cincinnati
Bengals |
-257 |
-170
|
9%
|
Baltimore Ravens |
+257 |
+142
|
-13%
|
| Detroit Lions |
-144 |
-205
|
-8%
|
Seattle Seahawks |
+144 |
+170
|
4%
|
| Green Bay Packers |
-170 |
+130
|
19%
|
Atlanta Falcons |
+170 |
-155
|
-24%
|
| Tampa Bay
Buccaneers |
-376 |
-142
|
20%
|
Chicago Bears |
+376 |
+120
|
-24%
|
| Indianapolis Colts |
-100 |
-102
|
0%
|
Houston Texans |
+100 |
-118
|
-4%
|
| New York Giants |
-400 |
-205
|
12%
|
Arizona Cardinals |
+400 |
+170
|
-17%
|
| San Francisco
49ers |
-1150 |
-325
|
16%
|
Los Angeles Rams |
+1150 |
+260
|
-19%
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
-150 |
-380
|
-19%
|
New York Jets |
+150 |
+300
|
15%
|
| Washington
Commanders |
-144 |
+154
|
20%
|
Denver Broncos |
+144 |
-185
|
-23%
|
| Miami Dolphins |
-117 |
-142
|
-5%
|
New England Patriots |
+117 |
+120
|
0%
|
| New Orleans Saints |
-113 |
-155
|
-7%
|
Carolina Panthers |
+113 |
+130
|
3%
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
| -138
| +113
| 11%
| Cleveland Browns
| +138
| -133
| -15%
|
Teams with a significant positive
expectation of profit (model odds are greater than book odds) are highlighted in gold.
Forecasts
published on Sept. 17th, 2023.
Here's what ChatGPT had to say about
my top picks this week...
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-376): The
Buccaneers boast a substantial 20% edge over the book odds, making them
a strong choice for potential victory.
- Washington Commanders (-144): The
Commanders carry a promising 20% edge, providing them with a
statistical advantage that could lead to a win.
- Green Bay Packers (-170): The Packers
come in with a solid 19% edge, setting the stage for an exciting
potential victory.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-426): Despite
being favorites, the Chiefs hold a notable 17% edge, offering an extra
layer of excitement to their prospects.
- San Francisco 49ers (-1150): The
49ers may be heavily favored, but they still possess a significant 16%
edge, making them a formidable pick for those who believe in their
potential for victory.
Week 2 Final Results:
- The model accurately forecasted 7/10 NFL games (4/5 top picks)
- Return, assuming uniform bets across all picks: 20.3%
Disclaimer: This project is in
early development and may generate skewed odds. It should not be used to
place bets.